Retirement Calculator
Project retirement savings from your current balance, contributions and expected return — with the assumptions that make any such projection soft.
The savings rate is almost the whole answer
You can stop when the pot covers the spending, and both sides of that are set by one number: what you save builds the pot, and what you spend sets the target. Assuming a 5% real return and the 4% withdrawal rule:
| Savings rate | Years to retirement |
|---|---|
| 5% | 65.8 |
| 10% | 51.4 |
| 15% | 42.8 |
| 20% | 36.7 |
| 30% | 28.0 |
| 40% | 21.6 |
| 50% | 16.6 |
| 65% | 10.5 |
| 75% | 7.1 |
The curve is steep in the middle. Going from 10% to 20% takes 14.6 years off; from 40% to 50% takes 5.0. The first improvements are worth the most, which is the opposite of how they usually feel.
And the salary does not appear in it
Run the same 25% savings rate at four very different incomes, simulated in actual dollars rather than fractions:
| Income | Target pot | Years |
|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | $750,000 | 32 |
| $80,000 | $1,500,000 | 32 |
| $200,000 | $3,750,000 | 32 |
| $500,000 | $9,375,000 | 32 |
Identical. Doubling the income doubles the saving and doubles the target, so they cancel exactly — the targets differ by more than an order of magnitude and the timelines do not differ at all. A high earner saving a quarter is no closer than a low earner saving a quarter: further along in dollars, identically far in time.
That is not an argument that income is irrelevant to a life. It is the narrower claim that income does not appear in this calculation, because the target is denominated in the same units as the saving. Changing the rate does change the answer, which is the control worth having alongside it.
Which is why a raise is worth a decade, or nothing
On $80,000 saving 20%, the timeline is 36.7 years. Take a raise to $100,000:
| What you do with it | New savings rate | Years |
|---|---|---|
| nothing — before the raise | 20% | 36.7 |
| spend all of it | 16.0% | 41.5 |
| bank all of it | 36.0% | 24.0 |
The same raise is worth 17.5 years of difference, and the only variable is what happens to the extra money.
Note the middle row against the first. Spending the raise entirely leaves you further from retiring than before you got it — 41.5 years against 36.7 — because the target grew and the contribution did not. Lifestyle creep is not neutral; it moves the finish line away.
How to use
- Enter your balance, contributions and years remaining.
- Set a return rate and an inflation rate.
- Read the projection in both nominal and real terms.
- Test a lower return to see how much it changes.
Frequently asked questions
What return rate should I assume?
Lower than the headline figures usually quoted. Long-run stock market averages after inflation are often cited around 7 per cent, but that is a historical average over long periods including severe crashes, and it is not a promise. Running the projection at several rates is more informative than picking one.
Why does inflation matter so much here?
Because a projection over decades in nominal terms is close to meaningless. At 3 per cent inflation, purchasing power roughly halves in 25 years, so a large-looking future balance may buy considerably less than it appears. The real-terms figure is the one that means anything.
What is sequence-of-returns risk?
The order in which good and bad years arrive, which matters enormously once you start drawing money out. A poor run early in retirement removes capital that would otherwise have recovered, and the same average return in a different order can produce a completely different outcome.
How much do fees really cost?
Far more than the percentage suggests, because they compound. One percentage point of annual charges over a working lifetime can consume a fifth or more of the final balance. It is the single most controllable variable in the whole projection.
Does this account for tax?
No, and the effect is substantial. Which account the money sits in determines how contributions and withdrawals are taxed, and the order in which accounts are drawn down materially changes how long the total lasts. That planning is specific to your circumstances and jurisdiction.
Can I rely on this?
No. It assumes constant returns and contributions, knows nothing about your tax position, other income, health costs or how long you will live, and cannot model a market. Use it to compare scenarios, and take a decision of this size to a qualified adviser — nothing here is financial advice.
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