Golf Card Game Odds & Scorer
Work out whether to keep a drawn card in Golf — the break-even is 5.77, not 5 — and see why nearly a quarter of the deck scores ten.
Score a six-card layout
The deck is not flat — tens are three times as common as anything else
Golf scores an ace as 1, the pips at face value, jacks and queens at 10, kings at 0. The values run 0 to 10 — but every value has four cards except the ten, which has twelve, because the ten, the jack and the queen all score the same.
| Value | Cards | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | |
| 1 | 4 | |
| 2 | 4 | |
| 3 | 4 | |
| 4 | 4 | |
| 5 | 4 | |
| 6 | 4 | |
| 7 | 4 | |
| 8 | 4 | |
| 9 | 4 | |
| 10 | 12 — ten, jack and queen |
Nearly a quarter of the deck is the worst card you can hold. That spike is the single most important fact about the game, and it is invisible if you picture the deck as an even spread from zero to ten.
Which puts the break-even at 5.77 — keep a five, refuse a six
Covering a card you have not seen, you are trading the drawn card against an unknown one, and an unknown card is worth the deck average: 300 ÷ 52 = 5.7692. So keep anything up to a 5 and refuse anything from a 6 up.
The common table rule of “keep under five” is one rank out. It throws away every five it sees, at 0.77 points a time — small, and it happens all evening.
And the house rule on kings moves the whole threshold. Kings at zero gives 5.77; kings at ten gives 6.54, which flips the six from a discard into a keep. Agree the kings before you agree the strategy.
Notes
- Columns cancel on rank, not on value. A ten and a jack both score ten and are still two separate cards — they do not pair. Two jacks do.
- A dealt column pairs 5.9% of the time, which is 3 in 51, so cancelling is something to take when it appears rather than to chase.
- Against a card you have already seen, the threshold is simply that card’s value — the average only applies to the ones still face down.
- Counting helps, in the direction you would hope. Once the tens are gone the threshold drops and you should get fussier; once the kings are gone it rises.
How to use
- Pick the card you drew and read whether it beats an unknown one.
- Set the house rule for kings — it moves the whole threshold.
- Deal a six-card layout to see how the columns score.
- Remember that columns cancel on rank, not on value.
Frequently asked questions
When should you keep a card in Golf?
Whenever it beats what an unseen card is worth, which is the deck average of 5.77. So keep anything up to a five and refuse anything from a six upward. The common table rule of keeping under five is one rank out and throws away every five it sees.
Why is the average card worth 5.77 and not 5?
Because the deck is not an even spread from zero to ten. Every value has four cards except the ten, which has twelve, since the ten, the jack and the queen all score the same. Nearly a quarter of the deck is the worst card there is, and that spike pulls the average up.
How much does the "keep under five" rule cost?
About 0.77 points every time it makes you discard a five, which over an evening is a real amount. It is a small error that happens constantly rather than a large one that happens once.
Does the rule about kings change the strategy?
Yes, substantially. Kings scoring zero puts the break-even at 5.77, so a six is a discard. Kings scoring ten lifts it to 6.54, which turns that same six into a keep. Agree the kings before you agree the strategy.
Do a ten and a jack cancel each other in a column?
No. Columns cancel on matching rank, not on matching value, so two jacks cancel but a ten and a jack do not — even though both score ten. It catches people out because the two cards look interchangeable on the scoresheet.
How often does a dealt column pair up?
About 5.9% of the time, which is three chances in fifty-one. Cancelling is worth taking when it appears rather than something to chase, since you will see it in roughly one column in seventeen.
What if the card I am covering is already face up?
Then the average does not apply — the threshold is simply that card value. Swap whenever the drawn card is lower. The 5.77 figure is only for covering something you have not seen.
Does counting cards help in Golf?
Yes, and in the direction you would expect. Once the tens have gone the average of what is left drops and you should get fussier; once the kings have gone it rises and you can afford to keep more. The tool recomputes the threshold if you tell it what has already appeared.
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