Poker Odds & Hand Strength
Work out whether a call is priced right, with the exact chance alongside the table shortcut. Plus a hand reader and the full ranking table.
Rank then suit, separated by spaces — As Kd 7c. Ten is T.
Hand rankings, and how often each turns up
| Hand | Example | In 7 cards |
|---|---|---|
| Straight flush Five in a row, all one suit. Ace-high is a royal flush. | T♠ 9♠ 8♠ 7♠ 6♠ | 1 in 3,590 |
| Four of a kind All four of a rank. The fifth card breaks a tie between two quads. | 9♠ 9♥ 9♦ 9♣ K♠ | 1 in 594 |
| Full house Three of one rank and two of another. The three matter first. | J♠ J♥ J♦ 4♠ 4♣ | 1 in 37 |
| Flush Five of a suit. Compared card by card, so the top card usually settles it. | A♦ J♦ 8♦ 5♦ 2♦ | 1 in 32 |
| Straight Five in a row. A-2-3-4-5 counts and is the lowest straight there is. | 8♠ 7♦ 6♦ 5♣ 4♥ | 1 in 21 |
| Three of a kind Three of a rank plus two unrelated cards. | Q♠ Q♥ Q♣ 9♦ 3♠ | 1 in 20 |
| Two pair The higher pair is compared first, then the lower, then the kicker. | K♠ K♦ 6♥ 6♣ A♠ | 1 in 4 |
| One pair Nearly half of all seven-card hands. The three kickers decide most fights. | A♠ A♣ J♦ 8♥ 3♠ | 1 in 2.4 |
| High card Nothing at all. Rarer than a pair, because seven cards usually pair something. | A♠ Q♦ 9♣ 6♥ 3♠ | 1 in 5.8 |
What these numbers do not tell you
- Pot odds tell you whether a call breaks even against the pot. They say nothing about how often you are beaten when you do hit.
- The rule of four is not simply optimistic. Below seven outs it slightly understates your chances; from seven upward it overstates them, and by twenty outs it is a full twelve points out. The exact figure is shown next to it.
- The one-card version — outs times two — understates at every count, by up to about two and a half points. It errs in your favour, which is why it has survived at the table.
- Outs are only outs if they actually win. A flush draw into a paired board, or a straight to the low end, is worth fewer than the count suggests.
- None of this makes a losing game a winning one. Variance over any evening is far larger than any edge these numbers describe.
How to use
- Pick your draw, or count the outs yourself.
- Enter the pot and the amount you have to call.
- Compare your real chance against the price you are being offered.
Frequently asked questions
Is the rule of four accurate?
Less simply than people say. Below seven outs it slightly understates your chances; from seven upward it overstates them, and by twenty outs it is a full twelve points out. The one-card version — outs times two — understates at every count, by up to about two and a half points, which is why it has survived at the table. The exact figure is shown next to the shortcut either way.
What exactly are pot odds?
The share of the final pot that your call makes up. Calling 50 into a pot of 150 means putting in 50 of the eventual 200, so you are paying 25%. If your chance of winning is better than that, calling breaks even or better.
Is A-2-3-4-5 a straight?
Yes, and it is the lowest one there is — the ace plays low and the hand is five-high, not ace-high. It is the case naive hand evaluators usually get wrong, either missing it or ranking it as the best straight on the board.
Should I use the two-card figure on the flop?
Only if you are certain you will see both cards, which usually means you or your opponent is all in. If there will be another bet on the turn, you are paying for one card at a time and the one-card figure is the honest one.
Are my outs really outs?
Only if they win the pot. A flush draw on a paired board can be beaten by a full house, and the low end of a straight draw can be beaten by the high end. Counting a card that makes you a losing hand is the commonest way this arithmetic goes wrong.
Will this make me a winning player?
No. It tells you whether one call is priced correctly, which is a small part of the game and says nothing about how often you are beaten when you do hit. Variance over any single evening is far larger than any edge these numbers describe.
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